Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of the Stability of Conductors in Riserless Mud Recovery System

Riserless Mud Recovery (RMR) technology, as an emerging and efficient drilling method, is advantageous to reduce the shallow flow hazards and the number of casings. The wave current effect is one of the reasons limiting the application of RMR technology in deep and ultra-deep water, and fewer quantitative and qualitative analyses of the effect of the current are made on the stability of conductors. This paper investigates the influence of the overturning moment generated by the continuous subsea internal wave flow and the soil resistance to the conductor. The numerical simulation software ABAQUS is used to study the effects of sea state recurrence period, seabed soil properties, conductor material, driving depth in the mud, and conductor wellhead height on the stability of the conductor, and the influence weights of the factors affecting the stability of the conductor are analyzed using the weight analysis algorithm of extreme learning machine-mean impact value (ELM-MIV). Finally, the qualitative and quantitative analyses affecting the stability of the conductor are carried out, which provide reference values for the application of the RMR technology.