Machine-learning-based approach for nonunion prediction following osteoporotic vertebral fractures

Purpose An osteoporotic vertebral fracture (OVF) is a common disease that causes disabilities in elderly patients. In particular, patients with nonunion following an OVF often experience severe back pain and require surgical intervention. However, nonunion diagnosis generally takes more than six months. Although several studies have advocated the use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) observations as predictive factors, they exhibit insufficient accuracy. The purpose of this study was to create a predictive model for OVF nonunion using machine learning (ML). Methods We used datasets from two prospective cohort studies for OVF nonunion prediction based on conservative treatment. Among 573 patients with acute OVFs exceeding 65 years in age enrolled in this study, 505 were analyzed. The demographic data, fracture type, and MRI observations of both studies were analyzed using ML. The ML architecture utilized in this study included a logistic regression model, decision tree, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and random forest (RF). The datasets were processed using Python. Results The two ML algorithms, XGBoost and RF, exhibited higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) than the logistic regression and decision tree models (AUC = 0.860 and 0.845 for RF and XGBoost, respectively). The present study found that MRI findings, anterior height ratio, kyphotic angle, BMI, VAS, age, posterior wall injury, fracture level, and smoking habit ranked as important features in the ML algorithms. Conclusion ML-based algorithms might be more effective than conventional methods for nonunion prediction following OVFs.