Bird species occupancy trends in Southeast Mexico over 1900-2020: Accounting for sighting record absences.

Long-term land-use change impacts tropical bird communities through population-level and functional diversity effects from habitat loss, degradation and fragmentation, leading to land management and conservation challenges. Assessing the temporal impacts of land-use change on occupancy patterns, population change and functional traits of bird species in tropical areas is limited by the treatment of nondetections as true absences or artefacts of low sampling effort during and throughout years. With this in mind, we developed a novel Bayesian species occupancy framework to account for species absences to evaluate bird community changes in Palenque, Chiapas, Mexico, where there is opportunity for study given exceptional records of change across habitats from rainforest to urban centres. We created a novel dataset of population trends for 244 bird species over the years 1900 to 2020 from published short-term field studies, expert field notes and community science pages. Our results show that open area species had higher population increases than forest specialists over time, represented most evidently by the turnover of rainforest specialists for urban species. Modelled influence of functional traits displayed the importance of main habitat types, body mass and habitat and dietary breadth as factors that associated with bird population trends. On average, species with body masses <6.6 and > 948.4 g showed decreasing trends, while all other species showed increasing or stable trends. Our findings illuminate the value of accounting for species absences from several data sources to discover long-term species population trends and affiliated functional traits whose preservation requires conservation and land management action to protect bird ecosystem services. Primary forest conservation is key to maintaining populations of habitat and dietary specialists, such as small understorey insectivorous and large frugivorous species. Protecting rare natural savanna patches from conversion to cattle pasture is vital to prevent further extirpation of native granivores and to slow colonization by exotic and invasive species.