Exploring the Impact of Bike Lanes on Transportation Mode Choice: A simulation-based, route-level impact analysis

Many U.S. cities are investing in making a more bike-friendly environment in hopes of reducing auto -dependency. Studies have shown that improving bike lanes enhance bike users' perceived safety and comfort, but whether it also shifts mode choice towards more biking remains largely unaddressed. This study proposes a model to examine whether and how bike lanes shift the mode choice towards various non-automobile modes. With the help of more than 110,000 sample trips from travel surveys, hypothetical bike routes are obtained to assess each route's level of bike-friendliness. A mode choice model with four modes - walking, biking, driving, and transit - is developed using this data. The model results suggest that bike lanes increase not only biking trips but also walking and public transit trips. However, the impact on biking trips alone was marginal, suggesting a more comprehensive strategy may be necessary to make a significant transition towards non-auto trips. When the data are segmented by poverty level, model results show that the mode choice of the low-income population is as significantly affected by bike lanes as the general population. In addition, the study results indicate that frequent transit users can greatly benefit from bike infrastructure since walking, biking, and public transit trips are closely associated with each other.