Fracture incidence and fracture-related mortality decreased with decreases in population mobility during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic: an epidemiological study

Introduction: We investigated the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) social distancing measures on fracture incidence and fracture-related mortality, as well as associations with population mobility.Methods: In total, 47 186 fractures were analysed across 43 public hospitals from 22 November 2016 to 26 March 2020. Considering the smartphone penetration of 91.5% in the study population, population mobility was quantified using Apple Inc's Mobility Trends Report, an index of internet location services usage volume. Fracture incidences were compared between the first 62 days of social distancing measures and corresponding preceding epochs. Primary outcomes were associations between fracture incidence and population mobility, quantified by incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Secondary outcomes included fracture-related mortality rate (death within 30 days of fracture) and associations between emergency orthopaedic healthcare demand and population mobility.Results: Overall, 1748 fewer fractures than projected were observed during the first 62 days of COVID-19 social distancing (fracture incidence: 321.9 vs 459.1 per 100 000 person-years, P<0.001); the relative risk was 0.690, compared with mean incidences during the same period in the previous 3 years. Population mobility exhibited significant associations with fracture incidence (IRR=1.0055, P<0.001), fracture-related emergency department attendances (IRR=1.0076, P<0.001), hospital admissions (IRR=1.0054, P<0.001), and subsequent surgery (IRR=1.0041, P<0.001). Fracture-related mortality decreased from 4.70 (in prior years) to 3.22 deaths per 100 000 person-years during the COVID-19 social distancing period (P<0.001).Conclusion: Fracture incidence and fracture-related mortality decreased during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic; they demonstrated significant temporal associations with daily population mobility, presumably as a collateral effect of social distancing measures.