Real-world effectiveness of HPV vaccination against cervical neoplasia among birth cohorts ineligible for routine vaccination

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine effectiveness may differ between settings. Here we present the first real-world effectiveness study of HPV vaccination on high-grade cervical lesions from Norway, among women who received HPV vaccine outside the routine program. We performed an observational study of all Norwegian women born 1975 to 1996 and retrieved individual data from nationwide registries on HPV vaccination status and incidence of histologically verified high-grade cervical neoplasia during 2006 to 2016. We estimated the incidence rate ratio (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for vaccination vs no vaccination by Poisson regression stratified by age at vaccination < 20 years and >= 20 years. The cohort consisted of 832 732 women, of which 46 381 (5.6%) received at least one dose of HPV vaccine by the end of 2016. The incidence rate of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) increased with age regardless of vaccination status and was highest at age 25 to 29, at 637/100 000 among unvaccinated women, 487/100 000 among women vaccinated before age 20 and 831/100 000 among women vaccinated at age 20 or older. The adjusted IRR of CIN2+ between vaccinated and unvaccinated women was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.46-0.84) for women vaccinated below age 20, and 1.22 (95% CI: 1.03-1.43) for women vaccinated at age 20 or older. These findings indicate that HPV vaccination among women too old to be eligible for routine HPV vaccination is effective among women who are vaccinated below age 20 but may not have the desired impact among women who are vaccinated at age 20 or older.