Significance of Dynamic Changes of VCA-IgA Levels in Pre- and Post-treatment Plasma of Patients with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: Development of a Clinically-Oriented Model

Introduction Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) responds well to radiotherapy but recurrence and metastasis are common. Currently, there is no widely used biomarker for accurately predicting the recurrence and metastasis of NPC. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic ability of Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) capsid antigen (VCA-IgA) kinetics by assessing the dynamic changes of VCA-IgA levels in the pre- and post-treatment plasma of patients with NPC and have proposed a prognostic model for clinical use. Methods The clinical records of patients with NPC diagnosed at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were retrieved and classified into a respondent ( n = 83) or non-respondent ( n = 25) cohort based on their response to antitumor therapy. Factors associated with the outcomes of the patients were assessed and incorporated in a nomogram. For internal validation, bootstrapping with 1000 resamples was used. The prediction accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were investigated by calibration and concordance index (C-index) and plotted decision curves to assess the benefits of nomogram-assisted decisions in a clinical context. Results Plasma VCA-IgA level of the non-respondent cohort at the 6th month after treatment was found significantly higher than the respondent cohort. Post-treatment VCA-IgA level, smoking, and distant metastases were identified as independent risk factors for disease-free survival (DFS), and were used to stratify patients with NPC into three risk groups. The median DFS of the low-, middle- and high-risk groups were 48.5, 35.0, and 15.5 months, respectively. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.848 (95% CI 0.769–0.926), demonstrating good clinical accuracy for predicting the DFS of patients with NPC. The decision curve showed that the nomogram in predicting DFS was better than VCA-IgA level, smoking, and distant metastases. Conclusion The proposed VCA-IgA-based nomogram demonstrated a promising ability to predict the DFS of patients with NPC after antitumor therapy. It could be used as a clinical guidance to improve the therapeutic/surveillance strategies of these patients.