Production Variability and Adaptation Strategies of Ugandan Smallholders in the Face of Climate Variability and Market Shocks

Climate-related variability in crop production and market price variability affect food and income security of Uganda’s rural households. We used household surveys from two contrasting sites in Uganda to quantify the relationships between crop production variability, adaptation strategies and household resource characteristics. Variability of production was large for all crops with almost doubling of yields under good conditions and halving of yields in bad years. Ex-post adaptation strategies were common, and the most frequent were relying on off-farm income, selling livestock, and reducing food consumption. Using off-farm income or selling livestock to compensate for crop damage were not feasible for 25–50% of the population. Few households applied ex-ante adaptation strategies, and those who did used strategies that required little financial investment, such as switching crops. The restricted application of ex-ante adaptation strategies and the fact that major ex-post adaptation strategies were inaccessible for large parts of the population is alarming considering that climate change studies show that weather variability and extreme weather events are expected to worsen and to jeopardize crop production. Interventions must aim to reduce households’ sensitivity to variability in crop production and prices by increased preparedness to shocks, strengthening the asset base, and diversifying the livelihood portfolio. Social protection programmes are important for the poor who have no means to cushion effects from climate or price variability.