Utilizing transient model for simulating uncertainty of natural gas transportation systems

High pressure fluctuations in gas transmission network is an extensive problem that leads to ineffective planning of gas management. Several studies are required to ensure pipeline integrity and safety limit remain intact. This paper investigates demand uncertainty factor and propose mitigation to solve high pressure fluctuation issue. A hydraulic steady state simulation is carried out using Pipeline Studio that computes time variant pressure output by considering flow, temperature and initial pressure profile for specific boundary and network element set points. Using sensitivity analysis result for gas flow equation and equation of state, the simulation is carried out for transient condition by using Movement Control Order (MCO) scenario due to pandemic COVID 19 as case study. Pressure trends obtained by running simulation on above case study are collected and compared with maximum operation pressure limit in pipelines. Result successfully concludes simulated pressure achieved is 61.87 barg with overall percentage of error by 0.31%. Study encourages future work to integrate simulation of gas and electricity to minimise uncertainty effect of gas demand to future proof the safety and reliability of pipeline system.