Unintended consequences of climate-adaptive fisheries management targets

Climate change is projected to affect the productivity of global fisheries. Management based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY) has been effective at eliminating overfishing in many regions. However, continuing to use yield-maximizing targets under climate-driven changes in productivity can result in higher anthropogenic pressure on populations subject to climate-related stress than maintaining status quo management targets. We demonstrate this effect using a theoretical example and case studies from snow crab in the eastern Bering Sea and a global marine fisheries database. In these examples, the conservation gain (i.e. biomass in the ocean) of maintaining status quo management targets is larger than the small gain in harvest made through climate adaptation in MSY-based management. The aggregate conservation gain of maintaining management targets increases as the harmful impacts of climate change on productivity worsen. Instead of climate-adaptive MSY-based targets, new management tools are needed to balance conservation and food production in ecosystems of populations displaying non-stationary productivity.