Modeling infections and deaths averted due to COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Ghana

This study assessed the impact of various COVID-19 vaccination strategies on health outcomes in Ghana using an age-stratified compartmental model. The population was stratified into three age groups: <25 years, 25-64 years, and 65+ years. Five vaccination optimization scenarios were explored, assuming that one million persons could be vaccinated in three versus six months. We also performed uncertainty analysis by assuming that the available doses were halved and doubled. The vaccine optimization strategies were assessed for the initial strain, followed by a sensitivity analysis for the delta variant by varying the reproduction number and vaccine efficacy. The results showed that vaccinating individuals <65 years was associated with the lowest cumulative infections when one million persons were vaccinated over three months for both the initial strain and the delta variant. On the contrary, prioritizing the elderly (65+) was associated with the lowest cumulative deaths for both strains. One-sentence summary An age-stratified model of COVID-19 vaccination in Ghana found vaccinating individuals <65 years was associated with the lowest cumulative infections when one million persons were vaccinated over three months while prioritizing the elderly (65+) was associated with the lowest cumulative deaths. ### Competing Interest Statement Sylvia Ofori declares that she is a paid intern at Ionis Pharmaceuticals, and the financial relationship does not affect the content of the article. Prof. Benjamin Cowling declares that he was a consultant for Roche and Sanofi Pasteur. All other co-authors declare no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This study did not receive any external funding. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes This is an epidemiological modeling study. We have provided the source R code in Technical Appendix B so that others can reproduce our results.