Recommendations for Primary Prevention of Skin Melanoma

Melanoma (MEL) is an aggressive form of skin cancer, causing over 60,000 deaths every year and it is considered one of the fastest-growing cancer forms. Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous genetic variants (SNPs) independently associated with MEL. The effects of such SNPs can be combined into a single polygenic risk score (PRS). Stratification of individuals according to PRS could be introduced to the primary prevention of melanoma. Our aim was to combine PRS with health behavior recommendations to develop a personalized recommendation for primary prevention of melanoma. Previously published PRS models for predicting the risk of melanoma were collected from the literature. Models were validated on the UK Biobank dataset consisting of a total of 487,410 quality-controlled genotypes with 3791 prevalent and 2345 incident cases. The best performing sex-specific models were selected based on the AUC in prevalent data and independently validated on an independent UKBB incident dataset for females and males separately. The best performing model included 28 SNPs. The C-index of the best performing model in the dataset was 0.59 (0.009) and hazard ratio (HR) per unit of PRS was 1.38 (standard error of log ( HR ) = 0.03) for both males and females. We performed absolute risk simulations on the Estonian population and developed individual risk-based clinical follow-up recommendations. Both models were able to identify individuals with more than a 2-fold risk increase. The observed 10-year risks of developing melanoma for individuals in the 99th percentile exceeded the risk of individuals in the 1st percentile more than 4.5-fold. We have developed a PRS-based recommendations pipeline for individual health behavior suggestions to support melanoma prevention. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement OU Antegenes has received a grant from the EIT Health The Digital Sandbox program and additional Innovation Voucher funding meant for business development of small and medium sized Estonian enterprises. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: UK Biobank: The UK Biobank study was approved by the North West Multi-Centre Research Ethics Committee (UK Biobank reference: 16/NW/0274). All participants provided written informed consent to participate in the UK Biobank study. All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Individual level genotype and phenotype data from UK Biobank can not be explicitly shared. The UK Biobank Resource was used under Application Reference Number 53602. New users can request access to UK Biobank from .