Abstract P500: Age-Specific Population Attributable Fractions for the Impact of Hypertension on Dementia Risk

Introduction: Hypertension in midlife, but not late life, is a robust predictor of subsequent dementia. However, the fraction of dementia attributable to hypertension might vary depending on the age of the population considered, and the age through which dementia onset occurs. Here, we investigated associations of hypertension assessed at various ages with incident dementia by age 80 or 90, then estimated population attributable fractions (PAF) for dementia from hypertension categories at each of these age groups. Hypothesis: Given hypertension prevalence increases with age but its relative risk for dementia tends to decrease, we had no prior expectation of the age at which the PAF’s would be highest. We hypothesized, however, that PAFs for incident dementia would be higher when hypertension is measured in midlife age groups versus late-life age groups. Methods: We leveraged 32 years of follow-up data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (ARIC), a prospective, community-based cohort that enrolled participants aged 45-64 years from four US communities (Washington County, MD; Forsyth County, NC; Jackson, MS; and selected suburbs of Minneapolis, MI) at ARIC visit 1 (1987-1989). Participants were followed through 2018-2019. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios, then quantified PAFs, of dementia by age 80 and 90 from hypertension assessed at ages of 45-54 (ARIC visit 1), 55-64 (ARIC visits 1 and 4), 65-74 (ARIC visits 4 and 5), and 75-84 (ARIC visit 5). Results: Hypertension was assessed among 7,572 participants aged 45-54; 12,033 aged 55-64; and 6,561 aged 65-74. By age 80 the number identified as having incident dementia was 711, 910, and 372, respectively. Relative to normotension, hypertension in each age category was associated with hazard ratios (HRs) greater than 1.0 for dementia from hypertension by age 80. The PAF for dementia by age 80 from hypertension measured at age 45-54 was 15.3% (95% CI = 6.9, 22.3%), 19.1% (95% CI = 9.9, 26.9%) at ages 55-64, and 19.9% (95% CI = -4.4, 38.5%) at ages 65-74. By age 90, the number of incident dementia cases were 958; 2,302; and 1,327, respectively; and, among the 2,086 participants aged 75-84, 400 incident dementia cases. HRs were slightly smaller than those by age 80, while hypertension assessed in the 75-84 age group was not significant. The PAFs for dementia by age 90 from hypertension at age 45-54 was 13.8% (95% CI = 6.6, 20.0%), 12.9% (95% CI = 7.0, 18.2%) at ages 55-64, 10.9% (95% CI = 0.02, 21.0%) at ages 65-74, and non-significant at ages 75-84. Conclusions: Public health interventions targeting hypertension in midlife through early late-life might reduce a sizeable proportion of dementia cases.