Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study highlights the global, regional, and national trends of gout and its risk factor, 1990 to 2050

Abstract Background The long-term and future trends in gout burden have rarely been reported. We aimed to analyze the trends in gout-related burden from 1990 to 2019 and forecast the trends from 2020 to 2050. Methods We extracted data on incidence cases, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and age-standardized DALY rates, and calculated age-specific age-standardized rate (ASR). We also calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to quantify trends in gout-related incidence and DALYs. The ASIRs and age-standardized DALY rates were predicted to 2050 using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The 95% uncertainty interval (UI) were calculated for all the estimates. Result Persistent increasing trends in gout-related ASIRs and the age-standardized DALY rates were observed from 1990 to 2019.The trends will remain increasing until in 2050. High BMI played a more vital role in causing gout in both younger and middle-aged group, while gout in older-aged was more often caused by the kidney disfunction. Moreover, group 65 and over years old were more susceptible to gout, and males were more likely to suffer from gout than females. Conclusion Gout-related both the ASIRs and the age-standardized DALY rates are expected to increase in most regions by 2050.Thus, gout remains a worldwide public health challenge, especially in high SDI countries, where more attention and health project services are needed. Given the differences on burden of gout, future successful interventions should be based on country-, age- and sex-specific distributions so as to reduce the burden of gout.