Shipping noise modelling in the thawing Arctic Ocean

One of the earliest and clearest signals of the impact of anthropogenic induced climate change has been the severe reduction in sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean, particularly in the summer. Predictions of an ice free summer range from 2030 to 2050. The reduction of ice extent and thickness opens the possibility for greater shipping traffic through polar regions for international shipping (cutting the transit time from Europe to Asia), for mine and indegenous nations logistics support and for high north fishing. The increased number and presence of ships is a potential threat to the sensitive marine species that live in the arctic and have evolved in a region devoid of anthropogenic sounds. Effective management of the region requires an understanding of the potential increases in shipping noise levels and in their relative levels to natural backround sound, such as wind and ice noise. In this paper, we present a modelling study of 2013–2019 shipping noise and look to build a model to predict the shipping noise in 2030 based upon the combination of national forecast economic plans and ice modeling. Mapping the projected levels of shipping noise into excess noise (level above wind and/or background ice levels) provides a methodology for developing management decisions consistent with other noise measurement and mitigation projects. Comparison of models with passive observations of arctic soundscapes will be presented.