Wheat blast disease impact on global grain yield under climate change

Abstract Wheat blast is a devastating fungal disease of wheat crops. The disease emerged in Brazil in the 1980s and is now spreading across continents, so it is urgent to calculate the potential for wheat blast spread and estimate the impact on wheat yield globally. By coupling a wheat crop simulation model with a new wheat blast model, quantitative estimates of wheat blast vulnerability were made with geographical precision. Under current climatic conditions, 6.4 million hectares of arable land is potentially vulnerable to wheat blast. Simulations of a warmer and more humid climate in the future show how wheat blast may spread, particularly in the southern hemisphere, and reduce global wheat production by 69 million tons per year (13% decrease) by mid-century.