Incidence and Prognosis of Thyroid Cancer in Children: Based on the SEER Database

Abstract Background: Studying the incidence trend and prognosis factors of childhood Thyroid cancer (TC) may better reflect the prevalence of this disease. Objectives: To explore the trends in the incidence of childhood thyroid cancer and the prognosis.Material and Methods: Join-point regression model was used to analyze incidence trend of TC. Cox regression model was applied to explore the survival situation and prognostic factors.Results: The incidence rate of childhood TC increased between 1975 and 2016 from 3.8/million (95%CI: 2.6-5.5) to 11.5/million (95%CI: 9.2-14.1), AAPC = 2.38 (95%CI: 1.98-9.65)) and could be divided into two stages of increasing trends. The incidence rate of Trend1 (1975-2005) increased slowly but Trend2 (2005-2016) increased dramatically. And annual rates of small size tumor (<4cm) and local stage TC in children increased significantly. The overall cumulative survival rate for childhood TC was high up to 97%-99%. Males, the black people, MTC type, distant metastasis, tumor size >= 4 cm, non-primary cancer were the independent risk factors of prognosis of childhood TC.Conclusions and Significance: A contribution of over detection to rising pediatric TC rates might not be able to rule out. Over-treatment to small size and local stage TC in children should be avoided.