Wastewater-based Epidemiology – Possible Approach for the Prevalence Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 in the Population

Abstract COVID-19 pandemic caused by β-coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerges to intensive scientific research and monitoring of wastewaters because of their possible important role in identifying and early warning of a spread of the virus in the community. In our study, we investigated the prevalence of the COVID-19 disease in the population of the capital city of Slovakia, Bratislava, based on wastewater monitoring from September 2020 until March 2021. Samples were analyzed from two major wastewater treatment plants of the city with reaching nearly 0.6 million monitored inhabitants. Obtained results from the wastewater analysis suggest significant statistical dependence. High correlations between the number of viral particles in wastewater and the number of reported positive nasopharyngeal RT-qPCR tests of infected individuals with a time lag of 2 weeks / 12 days (R2 = 83.78% / R2 = 52.65%) as well as with a reported number of death cases with a time lag of 4 weeks / 27 days (R2 = 83.21% / R2 = 61.89%) was observed. The obtained results and subsequent mathematical modeling will serve in the future as an early warning system for the occurrence of a local site of infection and, at the same time, predict the load on the health system up to two weeks in advance.