The Spatial-temporal Analysis of the Tuberculosis in Chongqing, China, 2011-2018

Abstract Background : China is a country with a high burden of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), and the number of patient ranks second place in the world. Chongqing is the only municipality in the southwest of China directly under the Central Government, where the notification rate of PTB ranks top ten in China. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of PTB in Chongqing in order to take more powerful control measures. Methods : A spatial-temporal analysis has been performed based on the data of PTB from 2011 to 2018, which was extracted from the National Surveillance System. Time series, spatial autonomic correlation and spatial-temporal scanning methods were used to identify the temporal trends and spatial patterns at county level. Results : A total of 188,528 cases were included in this study. A downward trend was observed in the epidemic of PTB in Chongqing from 2011 to 2018. The peak of PTB notification was present in late winter and early spring season each year. By calculating the value of Global Moran's I and Local Getis’s Gi*, we found that PTB was spatially clustered and some significant hot spots were detected in the southeast and northeast of Chongqing. One most likely cluster and three secondary clusters were identified by Kulldorff’s scan spatial-temporal Statistic. Conclusions : This study identified seasonal patterns and spatial-temporal clusters of PTB cases in Chongqing. The results provide us useful information for developing subsequent TB control measures.