Vegetation type change in California's Northern Bay Area: A comparison of contemporary and historical aerial imagery

The North Bay area of California is a populous and ecologically diverse area that has experienced significant changes in the past century, as well as a series of recent wildfires, after over a century of fire suppression practices. While much research has been conducted quantifying drivers and patterns of vegetation change in conifer-dominated ecosystems, and how such changes have influenced current trends in fire behavior, studies of similar focus and scale are rarer in non-conifer ecosystems, including mixed-hardwood forests or shrub -dominated ecosystems in central and coastal Northern California. This is despite the fact that ecosystems other than conifer forests make up the majority of area burned in California wildfires. As such, expanding research focused on patterns of large-scale vegetation change as a possible driver of this trend in this area is a priority. In this study, we sought to map the overall extent and patch sizes of broad vegetation classes across a 52,000 ha study area based on historical (1948) and contemporary (2014) aerial imagery and to investigate shifts in vegetation patterns, as well as potential pathways and drivers of detected changes. We classified vegetation types through segmenting our imagery into homogenous polygons, and assigning broad vegetation categories using a random forest algorithm. We then analyzed patterns of change using spatial statistics and conditional inference tree analyses. We detected a large increase (12%) in the relative landscape proportion and average patch size of the forest class, characterized by dense tree canopy cover. Woodlands and shrub patches were most susceptible to type change, with the majority (57% and 65%, respectively) of converted areas subsequently identified as denser forest stands. By contrast, herbaceous and forest patches were most persistent. We addi-tionally found that disturbance history, specifically whether an area burned or not, and topographic variables, including elevation and aspect, were important influences on the likelihood of vegetation persistence, while slope and water availability were not. Historical aerial imagery, which provides fine resolution and accurate data over a large spatial scale, is a useful tool for detecting landscape-scale vegetation shifts in ecosystems where widespread vegetation monitoring was not common historically. The marked increase in dense forest we detected, specifically due to the conversion of large areas of shrub and woodland vegetation may correspond to higher surface and ladder fuel load and continuity, and potentially higher wildfire risk. Fuel reduction treatments typically implemented in conifer-dominated forests may also be warranted in these mixed hardwood forests. However, more research is needed to understand drivers of change in non-conifer-dominated ecosystems in California and how such change influences wildfire behavior.