An alternative extension of telomeres related prognostic model to predict survival in lower grade glioma

Objective The alternative extension of the telomeres (ALT) mechanism is activated in lower grade glioma (LGG), but the role of the ALT mechanism has not been well discussed. The primary purpose was to demonstrate the significance of the ALT mechanism in prognosis estimation for LGG patients. Method Gene expression and clinical data of LGG patients were collected from the Chinese Glioma Genome Atlas (CGGA) and the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) cohort, respectively. ALT-related genes obtained from the TelNet database and potential prognostic genes related to ALT were selected by LASSO regression to calculate an ALT-related risk score. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to construct a prognosis signature, and a nomogram was used to represent this signature. Possible pathways of the ALT-related risk score are explored by enrichment analysis. Result The ALT-related risk score was calculated based on the LASSO regression coefficients of 22 genes and then divided into high-risk and low-risk groups according to the median. The ALT-related risk score is an independent predictor of LGG (HR and 95% CI in CGGA cohort: 5.70 (3.79, 8.58); in TCGA cohort: 1.96 (1.09, 3.54)). ROC analysis indicated that the model contained ALT-related risk score was superior to conventional clinical features (AUC: 0.818 vs 0.729) in CGGA cohorts. The results in the TCGA cohort also shown a powerful ability of ALT-related risk score (AUC: 0.766 vs 0.691). The predicted probability and actual probability of the nomogram are consistent. Enrichment analysis demonstrated that the ALT mechanism was involved in the cell cycle, DNA repair, immune processes, and others. Conclusion ALT-related risk score based on the 22-gene is an important factor in predicting the prognosis of LGG patients.