Evaluating Population Trends of Juvenile Atlantic Sturgeon at Low Abundance in a Dynamic Estuarine Environment (hudson River, New York)

Evaluating population trends in dynamic estuarine environments can be challenging, especially when survey data include a high percentage of zero observations. In fishery-independent surveys, zeros that come from reduced susceptibility to sample gears and reduced availability of the population to the survey impact survey catchability and negatively bias relative abundance indices. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to standardize a juvenile Atlantic Sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus) relative abundance index (Hudson River, New York) that included a high proportion (42%) of zero observations and intra- and interannually variable covariates. Reduced susceptibility was related to low water temperature, with the percentage of zeroes increasing rapidly below 7 degrees C. Availability was influenced by temperature and distance to salt front, as catch rates increased with temperature and peaked in mesohaline waters similar to 27 km downstream of the predicted salt front. An alternative index suggested significant population growth (r = 0.15; p-value = 0.007) occurred from 2004 to 2015. The zero-inflated model helped better understand Hudson River juvenile Atlantic Sturgeon ecology and relative trends in abundance, to better inform future management and monitoring decisions along the Atlantic Coast.