COVID-19 and Beyond: COVID-19 Interventions and Power Plant Emissions in the United States

Short- and long-term changes in electricity generatingunit (EGU)emissions were observed during COVID-19 public health interventionsin the United States. In a generalized synthetic control framework,we employ weekly EGU SO2, NO (x) , and CO2 emissions data from EPA's Clean Air MarketsDatabase and location-specific meteorology from 2010 to 2019 to estimateeach EGU's hypothetical business as usual (BAU) emissions throughout2020. We find that over 60% (covering >50% of total electricitygeneration)of EGUs saw SO2, NO (x) , and CO2 emissions increases relative to BAU, with most of the increasesoccurring in the eastern U.S. We find increases relative to BAU inthe March-April stringent lockdown period for SO2, NO (x) , and CO2 of 44% (4500tons/week), 23% (2200 tons/week), and 14% (2.3 million tons/week),respectively, with similar results from March to December 2020. Wefind that EGUs using coal as primary fuels are the main driver ofincreased emissions due to increased operations, and SO2 emissions increases at coal EGUs led to a 28% increase in PM2.5 related to coal SO2 emissions relative to BAUacross March-December. We find increases in SO2 andNO (x) emissions factors at coal EGUs in2020 relative to 2019 that likely played a role in these increases,and we identify changes in coal fuel consumption and price that mayhave played a role.