Clinical-functional brain connectivity signature predicts longitudinal symptom improvement after acupuncture treatment in patients with functional dyspepsia.

Whilst acupuncture has been shown to be an effective treatment for functional dyspepsia (FD), its efficacy varies significantly among patients. Knowing beforehand how each patient responds to acupuncture treatment will facilitate the ability to produce personalized prescriptions, therefore, improving acupuncture efficacy. The objective of this study was to construct the prediction model, based on the clinical-neuroimaging signature, to forecast the individual symptom improvement of FD patients following a 4-week acupuncture treatment and to identify the critical predictive features that could potentially serve as biomarkers for predicting the efficacy of acupuncture for FD. Clinical-functional brain connectivity signatures were extracted from samples in the training-test set (100 FD patients) and independent validation set (60 FD patients). Based on these signatures and support vector machine algorithms, prediction models were developed in the training test set, followed by model performance evaluation and predictive features extraction. Subsequently, the external robustness of the extracted predictive features in predicting acupuncture efficacy was evaluated by the independent validation set. The developed prediction models possessed an accuracy of 88% in predicting acupuncture responders, as well as an R of 0.453 in forecasting symptom relief. Factors that contributed significantly to stronger responsiveness of patients to acupuncture therapy included higher resting-state functional connectivity associated with the orbitofrontal gyrus, caudate, hippocampus, and anterior insula, as well as higher baseline scores of the Symptom Index of Dyspepsia and shorter durations of the condition. Furthermore, the robustness of these features in predicting the efficacy of acupuncture for FD was verified through various machine learning algorithms and independent samples and remained stable in univariate and multivariate analyses. These findings suggest that it is both feasible and reliable to predict the efficacy of acupuncture for FD based on the pre-treatment clinical-neuroimaging signature. The established prediction framework will promote the identification of suitable candidates for acupuncture treatment, thereby improving the efficacy and reducing the cost of acupuncture for FD.