Data-driven Mathematical Modeling of Sleep Consolidation in Early Childhood

Across early childhood development, sleep behavior transitions from a biphasic pattern (a daytime nap and nighttime sleep) to a monophasic pattern (only nighttime sleep). The transition to consolidated nighttime sleep, which occurs in most children between 2- and 5-years-old, is a major developmental milestone and reflects interactions between the developing homeostatic sleep drive and circadian system. Using a physiologically-based mathematical model of the sleep-wake regulatory network constrained by observational and experimental data from preschool-aged participants, we analyze how developmentally-mediated changes in the homeostatic sleep drive may contribute to the transition from napping to non-napping sleep patterns. We establish baseline behavior by identifying parameter sets that model typical 2-year-old napping behavior and 5-year-old non-napping behavior. Then we vary six model parameters associated with the dynamics of and sensitivity to the homeostatic sleep drive between the 2-year-old and 5-year-old parameter values to induce the transition from biphasic to monophasic sleep. We analyze the individual contributions of these parameters to sleep patterning by independently varying their age-dependent developmental trajectories. Parameters vary according to distinct evolution curves and produce bifurcation sequences representing various ages of transition onset, transition durations, and transitional sleep patterns. Finally, we consider the ability of napping and non-napping light schedules to reinforce napping or promote a transition to consolidated sleep, respectively. These modeling results provide insight into the role of the homeostatic sleep drive in promoting interindividual variability in developmentally-mediated transitions in sleep behavior and lay foundations for the identification of light- or behavior-based interventions that promote healthy sleep consolidation in early childhood.