Future changes in rainy season characteristics over East China under continuous warming

The summer rainfall amount over East China is expected to increase along with a strengthening of the East Asian summer monsoon in a warmer climate. However, how the seasonality of precipitation will respond to global warming remains uncertain and is closely related to monsoon circulation. Here, we project future changes in multiple intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over East China under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3 °C of global warming above pre-industrial levels based on coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 multi-model projections. Both the onset and cessation dates over South China are likely to be delayed in a warmer climate, resulting in a later shift of the rainy season. In contrast, advanced cessation dates are projected over Northeast China with high model consensus. As for rainfall characteristics within the rainy season, total rainy season rainfall is expected to increase over the whole East China domain, with remarkable enhancement of heavy rainfall intensity. Further analysis indicates that continuous warming over a 1.5 °C warmer climate is projected to further increase total rainy season rainfall and enhance heavy rainfall intensity, with a magnitude at least twice as large with additional warming of 0.5 to 1.5 °C. Also, changes in cessation dates over South and Northeast China are projected to be enhanced significantly. These results together indicate the vital need to slow down global warming to reduce potential adverse impacts on agricultural and socioeconomic development.