Examining TROPOMI formaldehyde to nitrogen dioxide ratios in the Lake Michigan region: implications for ozone exceedances

Surface-level ozone (O-3) is a secondary air pollutant that has adverse effects on human health. In the troposphere, O3 is produced in complex cycles of photochemical reactions involving nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Determining if O3 levels will be decreased by lowering NOx emissions ("NOx-sensitive"), VOC emissions ("VOC-sensitive"), or both ("the transition zone") can be done by using the formaldehyde (HCHO; a VOC species) to nitrogen dioxide (NO2; a component of NOx) concentration ratio (HCHO/NO2; "FNR"). Generally, lower FNR values indicate VOC sensitivity, while higher values indicate NOx sensitivity. Despite being a highly populated region with coastal O3 air quality issues, the Lake Michigan region in the United States, including the Chicago, Illinois, metropolitan area (CMA), remains relatively understudied, especially from the satellite perspective. In this work, we present the first study that utilizes TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite data over the Lake Michigan region from 2019-2021 to assess changes in O-3 precursor levels and the inferred O-3 chemistry sensitivity between (1) O-3 season days and CMA O-3 exceedance days and (2) weekdays and weekends. Higher NO2 vertical column densities (VCDs), HCHO VCDs, and FNR values are seen throughout the study domain on exceedance days, indicating generally more NOx-sensitive O-3 chemistry. The largest change occurs in the areal extent of the transition zone, which decreases by 40 % during exceedance days. Major urban cores in the domain (e.g., Chicago, Illinois; Gary, Indiana; and Milwaukee, Wisconsin) remain VOC-sensitive on exceedance days as the higher NO2 VCDs in these areas counterbalance the regionally higher HCHO VCDs. Utilizing 10 m wind analysis data, we show that the lake breeze circulation is stronger on exceedance days. The strengthening of the lake breeze causes stronger convergence of the wind field along the southwestern Lake Michigan coastline, which can concentrate NO2 emissions originating in this area. This finding provides a possible explanation for the higher TROPOMI NO2 VCDs over the urban core of Chicago on exceedance days. Investigation of 2 m air temperature analysis data reveals that temperatures are higher on exceedance days, which explains the stronger lake breeze circulation and provides a possible cause for the higher TROPOMI HCHO VCDs over the entire region (due to increased temperature-dependent biogenic VOC emissions). Comparing weekdays and weekends, higher FNR values throughout much of the region indicate increasingly NOx-sensitive O3 chemistry on weekends. These changes are driven by lower NO2 VCDs in urban areas, particularly in Chicago, and higher HCHO VCDs in the southern part of the domain on weekends. Overall, our analyses suggest that VOC emissions controls in major urban areas and NOx emissions controls throughout the entire domain are necessary to decrease O-3 levels in the Lake Michigan region.