Longitudinal kinetics of neutralizing antibodies against circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants and estimated level of group immunity of booster-vaccinated individuals during omicron-dominated COVID-19 outbreaks in the Republic of Korea, 2022

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic persisted for 3 years and is now transitioning to endemicity. We illustrated the change in group immunity induced by vaccination (monovalent vaccines) and breakthrough infections (BIs) in a healthcare worker (HCW) cohort. Five sampling points were analyzed: before the third dose and 1, 3, 5, and 8 months after the vaccination. The last two points corresponded roughly to 1 and 4 months after omicron BA.1/BA.2 BI. A semi-quantitative anti-spike binding antibody (Sab) assay and plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) against circulating variants were conducted. A linear regression model was utilized to deduce correlation equations. Baseline characteristics and antibody titers after the third dose were not different between 106 HCWs with or without BI (54/52). One month after the third dose, BA.1 PRNT increased with wild-type (WT), but 3 months after the third dose, it decreased more rapidly than WT PRNT. After BI, BA.1 PRNT increased robustly and waned slower than WT. A linear equation of waning kinetics was deduced between log(10)Sab and months, and the slope became gradual after BI. The estimated BA.5 PRNT titers at the beginning of the BA.5 outbreak were significantly higher than the BA.1 PRNT titers of the initial BA.1/BA.2 wave, which might be associated with the smaller size of the BA.5 wave. BA.1/BA.2 BI after the third dose elicited robust and broad neutralizing activity, preferentially maintaining cross-neutralizing longevity against BA.1 and BA.5. The estimated kinetics provide an overview of group immunity through the third vaccination and BA.1/BA.2 BI, correlating with the actual outbreaks. IMPORTANCE This study analyzed changes in group immunity induced by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and BA.1/BA.2 breakthrough infections (BIs) in a healthcare worker cohort. We investigated the longitudinal kinetics of neutralizing antibodies against circulating variants and confirmed that BA.1/BA.2 BIs enhance the magnitude and durability of cross-neutralization against BA.1 and BA.5. Correlation equations between semi-quantitative anti-spike antibody and plaque reduction neutralization test titers were deduced from the measured values using a linear regression model. Based on the equations, group immunity was estimated to last up to 11 months following the third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. The estimated group immunity suggests that the augmented immunity and flattened waning slope through BI could correlate with the overall outbreak size. Our findings could provide a better understanding to establish public health strategies against future endemicity.