Statistical Insights on the Eruptive Activity at Stromboli Volcano (italy) Recorded from 1879 to 2023.

Stromboli is an open-conduit active volcano located in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea and is the easternmost island of the Aeolian Archipelago. It is known as “the lighthouse of the Mediterranean” for its continuous and mild Strombolian-type explosive activity, occurring at the summit craters. Sometimes the volcano undergoes more intense explosions, called “major explosions” if they affect just the summit above 500 m a.s.l. or “paroxysms” if the whole island is threatened. Effusive eruptions are less frequent, normally occurring every 3–5 years, and may be accompanied or preceded by landslides, crater collapses and tsunamis. Given the small size of the island (maximum diameter of 5 km, NE–SW) and the consequent proximity of the inhabited areas to the active craters (maximum distance 2.5 km), it is of paramount importance to use all available information to forecast the volcano’s eruptive activity. The availability of a detailed record of the volcano’s eruptive activity spanning some centuries has prompted evaluations on its possible short-term evolution. The aim of this paper is to present some statistical insights on the eruptive activity at Stromboli using a catalogue dating back to 1879 and reviewed for the events during the last two decades. Our results confirm the recent trend of a significant increase in major explosions, small lava flows and summit crater collapses at the volcano, and might help monitoring research institutions and stakeholders to evaluate volcanic hazards from eruptive activity at this and possibly other open-vent active basaltic volcanoes.