Will technological factors promote the decoupling of emissions? A cross-sectoral analysis of Chinese industrial listed firms

The firm-level emission characteristics across China's industrial sectors are not yet thoroughly acknowledged, with limited prior research focus. To fill this research gap, we have constructed a dataset of Chinese industrial listed firms during 2010-2019 to analyze the emission characteristics of Chinese firms using Tapio's decoupling method, the extended logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) approach, and scenario analysis. Results show varying characteristics across sub-periods, transitioning from recessive decoupling (RD) during 2010-2012 to expansive negative decoupling during 2012-2015, and reverting to RD during 2015-2019. Sectors such as Mining, Textile, and Production and Supply mirrored the overall sample's decoupling pattern in these subperiods. However, Mechatronics Manufacturing and Resource Processing consistently exhibited strong decoupling throughout all three sub-periods. Research & Development (R&D) intensity mainly drove emission increases, while R&D efficiency contributed to emission reductions. The mitigation effect of R&D efficiency varied across regions, sub-sectors, and sub-periods, indicating disparities in technological innovation for carbon efficiency improvement. Scenario analysis suggests aggregated emissions may increase to 21.69 Bt in 2030 in scenario S1. With varying degrees of improvement in firm-level decoupling states, overall emissions could decrease by 87.7% and 94.98% in scenarios S2 and S3, respectively. Based on these findings, we propose policy implications for mitigating China's industrial emissions at the firm level.