Assessing global agri-food system exceedance of national cropland limits for linking responsible consumption and production under SDG 12

Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 12 requires countries to achieve responsible consumption and production patterns without exceeding safe environmental limits for natural resource use. This is particularly relevant to the global agri-food system, a major contributor to the exceedance of environmental limits such as cropland (a major component of the land-system change planetary boundary). However, little is known about how virtual cropland flows embedded in agri-food commodities jointly impact national consumption-and production-based environmental limits for cropland use in the context of responsible agri-food consumption and production. Using a multi-regional input-output model and cropland limits of agri-food consumption and production, we identified specific countries and commodity supply chains that contribute to the exceedance of production-based cropland limits of producer countries (both domestic and via trade), irrespective of whether their own consumption-based cropland limits are exceeded. For example, 86% of China's consumption-based cropland footprint originated from regions that exceeded their production-based cropland limits, even though China's per capita consumption footprint is within safe fair-share limits. This occurred mainly due to the consumption of domestically produced and imported commodities such as oilseeds, cereals, and fruit and vegetables. In addition, we identified patterns in international trade relationships that could inform national-level responsible agri-food consumption/production interventions across the global supply chain, thereby contributing to SDG 12. More stringent regulations and improved policies are required to reduce the exceedance of consumption-based and production-based environmental limits and avoid exceeding the global land-system change planetary boundary.