Analyzing the Drivers of Agricultural Irrigation Water Demand in Water-Scarce Areas: A Comparative Study of Two Regions with Different Levels of Irrigated Agricultural Development

Both the demand for agricultural irrigation and the level of water-saving technology in water-scarce regions have met food demand with technological progress and economic growth. There are differences in irrigation water demand drivers in regions with different levels of irrigated agricultural development. However, the relationship between related drivers in response to regional irrigation water demand is not fully understood. This study quantified the driving influence of six indicators, including technological progress, planting structure, water conservation management, economic development, planting scale, and consumption intensity, on agricultural irrigation water demand in JC (Jinchang) and WW (Wuwei), two cities in the Shiyang River Basin, from 2011 to 2020. The results shows that economic development is the main driver of the increase in irrigation water demand, with 29% and 43% driving contributions in JC and WW, respectively. Consumption intensity contributes the most to the decrease in irrigation water demand, with 31% and 23% of driving contribution in JC and WW, respectively. Cropping size has a greater positive drive on irrigation water demand in non-agricultural areas relative to agricultural areas. Planting structure has a more pronounced negative drive on irrigation water demand in agricultural areas relative to non-agricultural areas. In particular, relative to irrigated areas, the proportion of water-saving irrigated areas to the sown areas has a greater impact on changes in irrigation water demand, with a significant rebound effect when it exceeds 80%, so that blindly expanding water-saving irrigated areas will drive an increase in irrigation water demand. The results of this study can provide useful suggestions for agricultural water management in water-scarce areas with different levels of water-saving irrigation development, and realize the sustainable development of agriculture in water-scarce areas.