Investigating community-based care service factors delaying residential care home admission of community dwelling older adults and cost consequence

Objectives To examine factors contributing to delaying care home admission; and compare the rates of care home admission and cost consequence between two government subsidised programmes, Veterans' Affairs Community Nursing (VCN) and Home Care Package (HCP).Methods Our national, population-based retrospective cohort study and cost analysis used existing, de-identified veterans' claims databases (2010-19) and the Registry of Senior Australians Historical Cohort (2010-17), plus aggregate programme expenditure data. This involved 21,636 VCN clients (20,980 aged 65-100 years), and an age- and sex-matched HCP cohort (N = 20,980).Results Service factors associated with lower risk of care home admission in the VCN cohort were periodic (versus continuous) service delivery (HR 0.27 [95%CI, 0.24-0.31] for <= 18 months; HR 0.89 [95%CI, 0.84-0.95] for >18 months), and majority care delivered by registered nurses (versus personal care workers) (HR 0.86 [95%CI, 0.75-0.99] for <= 18 months; HR 0.91 [95%CI, 0.85-0.98] for >18 months). In the matched cohorts, the time to care home admission for VCN clients (median 28 months, IQR 14-42) was higher than for HCP clients (14, IQR 6-27). Within 5 years of service access, 57.6% (95%CI, 56.9-58.4) of HCP clients and 26.6% (95%CI, 26.0-27.2) of VCN clients had care home admission. The estimated cost saving for VCN recipients compared to HCP recipients over 5 years for relevant government providers was over A$1 billion.Conclusions Compared to an HCP model, individuals receiving VCN services remained at home longer, with potentially significant cost savings. This new understanding suggests timely opportunity for many countries' efforts to enhance community-based care services.