ANALYSIS OF THE TRENDS, HYDROLOGICAL REGIME OF THE COMPLEX DAMS INFLOW AND THE WATER SUPPLY VULNERABILITY ALONG THE BLACK SEA

Climate factors are already exerting negative pressure on water resources, society and ecosystems. The analysis of trends and identification of vulnerable water supply areas is related to the River Basin Management Plans. For this end, a methodology for assessment of water resources vulnerability, developed in international projects of the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH), is adapted. The methodology is further developed by drought risk assessment. The main stages are: 1) Assessment of the climate factors and trends; 2) Evaluation of the trends in water resource alterations, under different scenarios or drought; 3) Developing a calculation scheme of the Water Management System; 4) Assessment of the water consumption and ecological flow; 5) Assessment of vulnerability of water resources and prolonged drought risk assessment. Identification of �critical areas� and the so-called �hot spots�; 6) Analysis of measures and adaptive management. The methodology is applied for Black sea region. In this report the main trends, the evaluated risks and the analyzed influence of climate change and extreme phenomena on water are represented. Emphasis is given to the assessment of the water resources and inflows to the complex and significant dams in the area. Investigations concerning the significance of trends in runoff change using the Mann- Kendall test are carried out. A trend analysis of the groundwater levels reduction according to NIMH operational monitoring data is performed. A new approach for prolonged drought assessment by integrated analysis of the indices from NIMH drought identification system (SPI, SRI and SMI), the indicators used by the Ministry of Environment and Water (reservoirs inflow and levels) and groundwater, is applied. The vulnerable areas are identified � water supply from reservoirs in cases of prolonged drought, some Natura 2000 areas, etc.