Modeling the transition of the multimodal pan-European energy system including an integrated analysis of electricity and gas transport

Abstract Most recently, the European energy system has undergone a fundamental transformation to meet decarbonization targets without compromising the security of the energy supply. The transition involves several energy-generating and consuming sectors emphasizing sector coupling. The increase in the share of renewable energy sources has revealed the need for flexibility in supporting the electricity grid to cope with the resulting high degree of uncertainty. The new technologies accompanying the energy system transition and the recent political crisis in Europe threatening the security of the energy supply have invalidated the experience from the past by drastically changing the conventional scenarios. Hence, supporting strategic planning tools with detailed operational energy network models with appropriate mathematical precision has become more important than ever to understand the impacts of these disruptive changes. In this paper, we propose a workflow to investigate optimal energy transition pathways considering sector coupling. This workflow involves an integrated operational analysis of the electricity market, its transmission grid, and the gas grid in high spatio-temporal resolution. Thus, the workflow enables decision-makers to evaluate the reliability of high-level models even in case of disruptive events. We demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed workflow using results from a pan-European case study. The case study, spanning 2020–2050, illustrates that feasible potential pathways to carbon neutrality are heavily influenced by political and technological constraints. Through integrated operational analysis, we identify scenarios where strategic decisions become costly or infeasible given the existing electricity and gas networks.