The Impact of Cost and Energy Storage on Power Sector Decarbonisation

As India embarks on a decarbonisation trajectory following its net-zero commitments at Glasgow in 2021, this paper evaluates the impact of the declining cost of solar and battery storage technologies as well as the cost of capital (CoC) on the future net-zero portfolio of the Indian power sector. The analysis uses an hourly-resolved, technology-explicit, bottom-up TIMES-based cost optimisation and modelling framework incorporating various power generation, energy storage, and green hydrogen (GH(2)) production technologies with thermal power plant flexibility constraints. The results indicate that in an optimistic cost scenario, a future 100 % non-fossil-fuel-based (FFB) power sector complimented by energy storage will be able to meet India's demand for round-the-clock electricity and GH(2). Achieving a smooth net-zero power sector transition requires the CO2 emissions to peak by 2035 and then gradually decline and taper off after 2060. In this case, the crossover between the generation share of FFB and non-FFB resources will occur early next decade. The output from energy storage is likely to meet 20 % of India's end-use electricity demand by 2070. The transition cost will be highly capital-intensive, which will increase significantly with a higher CoC.