A Prediction Model of Sufficient Filter Lifespan in Anticoagulation-free CRRT Patients

Abstract Background: Anticoagulation-free continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) was recommended by the current clinical guideline for patients with increased bleeding risk and contraindications of citrate and resulted in heterogeneous filter lifespan. There was no prediction model to identify the patients would have sufficient filter lifespan when they have to accept CRRT without the use of any anticoagulation. The purpose of our present study is to develop a clinical prediction model of sufficient filter lifespan in anticoagulation-free CRRT patients. Method: Patients who underwent anticoagulation-free CRRT in our center between June 2013 and June 2019 were retrospectively included. The primary outcome was sufficient filter lifespan (≥ 24 hours). The final model was established by using multivariable logistic regression analysis. And, the prediction model was validated in an external cohort. Results: A total of 170 patients were included in the development cohort. Sufficient filter lifespan were observed in 80 patients. The probability of sufficient filter lifespan could be calculated using the following regression formula: P (%) = exp (Z)/1 + exp (Z), where Z = 0.49896-(0.08552*BMI)+(0.44107*T)+(0.03373*MAP)-(0.03389*WBC)+(1.51579*[vasopressor=1])-(0.01132*PLT)+(0.00422*ALP)-(2.66910*pH)-(0.00214*UA)+(0.05992*BUN)+(0.00400*Db)–(0.00014*D-dimer)+(0.02818*APTT). The area under the curve (AUC) of the stepwise model and internal validation model was 0.82 (95%CI [0.76-0.88]) and 0.8 (95%CI [0.74-0.87]), respectively. At the optimal cut-off value of -0.1052, the positive predictive value and the negative predictive value of the stepwise model was 0.77 and 0.79, respectively. The AUC of the external model was 0.82 (95%CI [0.69-0.96]). Conclusion: The use of a prediction model instead of an assessment based only on coagulation parameters could facilitate the identification of the patients with filter lifespan of ≥ 24 hours when they accepted anticoagulation-free CRRT.