Individual vaccine efficacy variation with time since mRNA BNT162b2 vaccination estimated by rapid, quantitative antibody measurements from a finger-prick sample

Abstract We show that an individual’s immune status to Covid-19 can be monitored through quantitative antibody measurements using a method based on centrifugal microfluidics, specifically designed for speed to result (20 min), high throughput (8 samples simultaneously) and accuracy from a finger-prick blood sample. Anti-Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) IgG concentration showed a log-normal distribution with mean decreasing with time following the second vaccination with mRNA BNT162b2 (Pfizer). Using a model for an individual’s antibody concentration-dependent vaccine efficacy allowed comparison with literature data on changing vaccine efficacy against symptomatic disease across a population. Even though the trial was small ( n = 100) the computed population vaccine efficacy was in reasonable agreement with that obtained from a large population survey. The derived parameters for the vaccine efficacy model were in good agreement with those expected from previous studies and from a simple theoretical model. The results and modelling show that the major proportion of breakthrough infections are for people whose antibody concentration is in the tail of the distribution. The results provide strong support for personalized booster programmes that, by targeting people in the tail of the distribution, should be more effective at diminishing breakthrough infection and optimising booster dose supply than a program that simply mandates a booster at a specific post-vaccination time point.