Carbon Ignorance: Do People Misestimate the Carbon Footprint of Behaviors, Firms, and Industries?

As climate change concerns rise, people increasingly seek to behave and consume sustainably. Doing so requires understanding which behaviors matter most, and which firms and industries emit the least. In this paper, we explore whether people are knowledgeable enough to make choices that align with their sustainability goals. Across five studies, we (1) demonstrate that individuals’ climate-related estimates are largely inaccurate, (2) provide evidence that this misestimation results from a cognitive process of attribute substitution, and (3) identify conditions that do (and do not) moderate estimation accuracy. These findings have important implications not only for individuals who desire to minimize their emissions, but for firm and industry reputations, investments, regulatory oversight, and understanding of greenwashing. Overall, our findings suggest that to the extent that individual action can be impactful, we should intervene with accessible, easily understandable information that highlights the causal impact of consumption in order to facilitate this action.