Real-Time High-Resolution Prediction of Orographic Rainfall for Early Warning of Landslides

Abstract Heavy rainfall often causes devastating landslides. Early warning based on reliable rainfall prediction can help reduce human and economic damages. This paper describes a recent development of reliable high-resolution prediction of orographic (topographic) rainfall using our next-generation numerical weather prediction model, the Multi-Scale Simulator for the Geoenvironment (MSSG). High-resolution computing is required for reliable rainfall prediction, and the MSSG can run with very high resolutions. Robust cloud microphysics is another key to realizing reliable predictions of orographic clouds, where the atmospheric boundary turbulence can affect. This paper clarifies that in-cloud turbulence can enhance cloud development. The recent cloud microphysics model that can consider turbulence enhancement is newly implemented in the MSSG. The emerging machine-learning technology is also coupled with the MSSG for reliable operational predictions. We show the recent development towards reliable predictions of orographic rainfall for realizing early warning of landslides.