Vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate variability in Chiredzi, Zimbabwe

Abstract Vulnerability to climate variability and change differs from one group to another, from sector to another, and between regions. Understanding the degree to which smallholder farmers are vulnerable to climate risk is critical when assessing adaptation responses to offset current and future risks. Here, we assessed the vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate variability in Chiredzi, Zimbabwe. Vulnerability is assessed using a two-dimensional approach – quantitative analysis of observed climate data to assess farmers’ exposure and qualitative analysis of farmers’ socio-economic data. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) is applied to understand levels of farmers’ livelihood vulnerability. 16 rainfall and temperature indices and extreme events critical to rainfed smallholder farmers were analysed at annual and seasonal scales from 1972–2021. A cross-sectional survey was conducted on 100 smallholder farmers. Our results confirm an increased warming trend, and forward shift of the rainy season onset, with both of these indices showing statistically significant trends. A maximum temperature increase of 0.1 o C annum -1 was observed. All the other indices and extreme events exhibited insignificant trends. The total seasonal rainfall has increased by 3.2 mm annum -1 . Increased interseasonal variability of the measured indices was observed. Hot days for maize and sorghum have increased by 0.25 and 0.85 days annum -1 respectively. The combination of increased delayed rainy season onset and a decreasing trend for rainy season length suggests that the rainy season is shrinking slowly. There was alignment between farmers’ perceptions of the climate and trends from observed climate data on the majority (seven) of the indices. Livelihood vulnerability to climate risk varied for farmers in communal and resettled wards. Farmers in resettled areas had a higher LVI (0.4076) than farmers in communal areas (0.3762). The LVI-IPCC shows a relatively similar index for both communal and resettled wards (-0.0874 and -0.0849 respectively). Importantly, farmers with Indigenous knowledge (IK) and local knowledge (LK) background showed lower LVI than farmers without IK and LK, implying the important role of IK and LK, in climate vulnerability assessment and in increasing farmers’ adaptive capacity. Our results have implications on the implementation of climate adaptation responses by smallholder farmers in Chiredzi. Adaptation measures should be tailored based on the vulnerability levels of farmers and their exposure to climate risks. This is important for the implementation of effective climate adaptation responses in the Chiredzi district.