Global per-capita CO 2 emission trends and the driving forces for shifts in the center of gravity

Abstract Background: Carbon emissions have received increasing international attention in recent years and countries have undertaken different measures to control emissions. Research into carbon emissions has also increased year by year, but remains mainly focused on national total carbon emissions, and per-capita carbon emissions have received less attention. This paper investigates spatial and temporal changes in per-capita carbon emissions and uses the Mann-Kendall test to assess the directions and magnitudes of trends, and to investigate abrupt changes in per-capita carbon emissions. Results: We found the highest positive growth rate in Oman, at 0.439 mts/yr, and the highest negative growth rate in United Arab Emirates, at -0.462 mts/yr. If no further mitigation measures are taken, we estimate that the current emissions trends will persist into the future for 86% of countries. The number of change-points was greatest in 1994 and smallest in 1999. The shift in the center of gravity for per-capita carbon emissions changed direction in 2004. From 1992 to 2004, the gravity center for per-capita carbon emissions gradually shifted to the southwest, and, after 2004, it gradually shifted to the southeast until 2018. Conclusions: Europe has entered the carbon reduction phase, but it is not yet significant, and carbon emissions are still increasing in the rest of the continent. The main driver for the westward shift in the gravity center before 2004 was that carbon emissions grew more strongly in the West than in the East before 2004, while the driver for the eastward shift in the gravity center after 2004 was a combination of emission reductions in the West and emission increases in the East.