Detection and Mapping of Violent Crime Hotspots in Southwestern Nigeria

The increasing rate of insecurity in Nigeria, especially the southwest requires a paradigm shift from popular approach to crime hotspots detection. This study employed geospatial technologies to integrate spatio-temporal crime, social media and field observation data from the communities in all the six states in the southwest to develop crime hotspots that can serve as preliminary information to assist in allocating resources for crime control and prevention. Historical crime data from January 1972 to April, 2021 were compiled and updated with rigorous field survey in September, 2021. The field data were encoded, input to the SPSS 17 and analyzed using descriptive statistics and multivariate analysis. A total 936 crime locations data were geolocated and exported to ArcGIS 10.5 for spatial mapping using point map operation and further imported to e-Spatial web-based and QGIS for the generation of hotspot map using heatmap tool. The results revealed that armed robbery, assassination and cultism were more pronounced in Lagos and Ogun States. Similarly, high incidences of farmers/herdsmen conflicts are observed in Oyo and Osun States. Increasing incidences of kidnapping are common in all the south-western states but very prominent in Ondo, Lagos and Oyo States. Most of the violent crime incidents took place along the highways, with forests being their hideouts. Violent crimes are dominantly caused by high rate of unemployment while farmer/herdsmen conflicts were majorly triggered by the scarcity of grazing fields and destruction of arable crops. The conflicts have resulted in the increasing cases of rape and disruption of social group, intake of hard drugs, cult-related activities, low income and revenue generation, and displacement of farmers and infrastructural damages. The study advocates regular retraining and equipping of security agents, establishment of cattle ranch, and installation of sophisticated IP Camera at the crime hotspots to assist in real-time crime monitoring and management.