Spring phytoplankton bloom phenology during recent climate warming on the Bering Sea shelf

High-latitude ecosystems commonly experience large phytoplankton blooms in spring, which provide basal resources for a range of grazers including zooplankton, benthic consumers and fishes. Variation of the timing and intensity of the spring phytoplankton bloom influences the degree of spatial and temporal overlap with consuming organisms. In the Bering Sea, blooms occur in association with ice retreat or as pelagic open-water blooms. In the last few years, the Bering Sea shelf experienced unprecedented and widespread warming. Understanding how those climatic changes subsequently influenced phytoplankton bloom dynamics is critical for evaluating Bering Sea food web responses. We estimate spring bloom timing and type (ice-associated, open-water) across the Bering Sea shelf using a combination of data from the long-running oceanographic moorings on the eastern shelf (M2, M4, M5, M8) and satellite ocean color data from 1998 to 2022. We assess 1) if the Bering Sea shelf experienced noticeable changes in spring bloom timing or type in the last two decades, 2) whether bloom phenology was accentuated by the recent warm period (2018-2019), and 3) what influences do winds and sea surface temperatures have on spring bloom timing and where are these variables influential? Our spatial analyses reinforce the conclusion that ice retreat is the dominant forcing factor of bloom timing for the Bering Sea shelf with some influence of wind for open-water blooms. Overall, bloom timing has not shifted seasonally with climate warming in the last two decades for most of the Bering Sea shelf, except for nearshore areas and mainly in the northern Bering Sea. In warm years when ice retreats early prior to the last week of March, blooms form in open waters and bloom timing on the middle and outer shelf is delayed when wind mixing is prevalent in ice-free springs. In recent years, open-water blooms were more widespread than previously experienced, and even occurred in the northern Bering Sea during 2018-2019. A progression to more open water blooms in a future warmer climate will influence the availability of basal resources for pelagic and benthic consumers.