Contrasting demographic responses under future climate for two populations of a montane amphibian

•Studies predict that climate change will result in species distributions shifting towards poleward boundaries, yet many fail to account for local landscape processes that could differentially affect life history stages.•Life-stage specific responses can impact the persistence of populations in regions thought to be safe from the negative effects of climate change.•Here, we highlight adaptations to local climate for two populations of a high elevation amphibian that result in contrasting demographic responses under future climate change, underscoring the importance of accounting for varying population-level response when predicting how a species will respond to a changing climate.