Nucleated red blood cells are a late biomarker in predicting intensive care unit mortality in patients with COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome: an observational cohort study

Background: Nucleated red blood cells (nRBC) are precursor cells of the erythropoiesis that are absent from the peripheral blood under physiological conditions. Their presence is associated with adverse outcomes in critically ill patients. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of nRBC on mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Material and methods: This retrospective, observational cohort study analyzed data on 206 ICU patients diagnosed with COVID-19 ARDS between March 2020 and March 2022. The primary endpoint was ICU mortality, and secondary endpoints included ICU and hospital stay lengths, ventilation hours, and the time courses of disease severity scores and clinical and laboratory parameters. Results: Among the included patients, 68.9% tested positive for nRBC at least once during their ICU stay. A maximum nRBC of 105 mu l(-1) had the highest accuracy in predicting ICU mortality (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic [AUCROC] 0.780, p < 0.001, sensitivity 69.0%, specificity 75.5%). Mortality was significantly higher among patients with nRBC >105 mu l(-1) than <= 105 mu l(-1) (86.5% vs. 51.3%, p = 0.008). Compared to patients negative for nRBC in their peripheral blood, those positive for nRBC required longer mechanical ventilation (127 [44 - 289] h vs. 517 [255 - 950] h, p < 0.001), ICU stays (12 [8 - 19] vs. 27 [13 - 51] d, p < 0.001), and hospital stays (19 [12 - 29] d vs. 31 [16 - 58] d, p < 0.001). Peak Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Simplified Acute Physiology Score, PaO2/FiO2, interleukin-6, and procalcitonin values were reached before the peak nRBC level. However, the predictive performance of the SOFA (AUCROC 0.842, p < 0.001) was considerably improved when a maximum SOFA score >8 and nRBC >105 mu l(-1) were combined. Discussion: nRBC predict ICU mortality and indicate disease severity among patients with COVID-19 ARDS, and they should be considered a clinical alarm signal for a worse outcome. nRBC are a late predictor of ICU mortality compared to other established clinical scoring systems and laboratory parameters but improve the prediction accuracy when combined with the SOFA score.