Solar cycle variability induced by stochastic fluctuations of BMR properties and at different amounts of dynamo supercriticality
arxiv(2024)
摘要
Understanding the irregular variation of the solar cycle is crucial due to
its significant impact on global climates and the heliosphere. Since the polar
magnetic field determines the amplitude of the next solar cycle, variations in
the polar field can lead to fluctuations in the solar cycle. We have explored
the variability of the solar cycle at different levels of dynamo
supercriticality. We observe that the variability depends on the dynamo
operation regime, with the near-critical regime exhibiting more variability
than the supercritical regime. Furthermore, we have explored the effects of the
irregular BMR properties (emergence rate, latitude, tilt, and flux) on the
polar field and the solar cycle. We find that they all produce considerable
variation in the solar cycle; however, the variation due to the tilt scatter is
the largest.
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