Age-period-cohort analysis of colorectal cancer mortality in Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2019

Objectives: The current study aimed to describe and estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality in Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2019. Study design: This was an epidemiological study. Methods: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Age -period -cohort modelling was used to compute the net drift, local drift, cross-sectional age curve, longitudinal age curve, and rate ratios (RRs) of period and cohort of CRC mortality in Saudi Arabia. Results: In 2019, there were 1629 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1263 to 2045) CRC cancer deaths in Saudi Arabia, and the age -standardised mortality rate of CRC was 9.7 (95% UI: 7.8 to 11.6) per 100,000 population. For men, between 1990 and 2019, the total number of CRC deaths increased dramatically from 199 (95% UI: 130 to 286) in 2019 to 942 (95% UI: 725 to 1228). For the period effects, the relative risk (RR) of mortality rate for both sexes followed similar monotonic increase patterns throughout the study period. Conclusions: Results from this study highlight a concerning increase in CRC mortality rates in Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2019, particularly among individuals aged 30-50 years. While mortality rates for men were higher at the start of the study period, more favourable trends for men were seen in the later years of the study period, indicating evolving gender disparities. Establishing evidence -based national screening guidelines and adopting multi -level diagnostics, risk assessment, and population -wide screening, especially for younger populations, is crucial. (c) 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Royal Society for Public Health. This is an open access article under the CC BY -NC -ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).