Drivers of Caribbean precipitation change due to global warming: analyses and emergent constraint of CMIP6 simulations

Using 31 CMIP6 models we have analyzed projected future Caribbean precipitation. The model mean projection results in a 0.5 mm/day (20%) drying under a SSP5-8.5 scenario for the end of this century over the Caribbean basin. The multi-model spread is large ranging from no drying to a 1 mm/day (40%) reduction in mean precipitation. Eastern and central Pacific warming, resembling an El Niño / positive phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), appears to be the main driver by shifting and weakening the Walker circulation and inducing subsidence over the Caribbean, especially during the wet season (May–November). This applies for the model mean as well as for the inter-model spread. During the dry season (December–April) the southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the advection of dry air from outside the Caribbean seem to be the dominant drivers of the projected drying. Another mechanism that contributes to the drying is the land-sea contrasts that induce divergence/convergence over the Caribbean. The incapability of CMIP6 models to simulate the current tropical Pacific warming and Walker circulation trends questions the reliability of precipitation projections in the Caribbean. Based on our understanding of the physical processes affecting Caribbean drying and on an emergent constraint analysis we state that the future drying in the Caribbean is likely to be weaker than the one projected by CMIP6 models.