Factors associated with viral load non-suppression among treatment-experienced pre-teenage children living with HIV in Kenya: a nationwide population-based cohort study, 2015-2021

Background Viral load non -suppression (VLNS) in children is a major public health concern because of attendant HIV disease progression and risk of morbidity and mortality. Based on a nationally representative database we present estimates of the prevalence, trends and factors associated with VLNS in Kenyan pre -teenage children between 2015 and 2021. Methods Kenya National AIDS & STI Control Program's (NASCOP) maintains an early infant diagnosis and viral load (EID/VL) database for all persons living with HIV who are enrolled in the country's primary care clinics for purposes of monitoring progress towards achievement of the 95% viral suppression goals. Participants were eligible if they were children living with HIV (CLHIV), on combination ART (cART) treatment, and <= 12 years old. The modified Mann-Kendall trend test for serially correlated data was used to identify VLNS trends. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) with a logit link was used to assess the effects of covariates on the odds of VLNS (VL >= 1,000 copies/mL) over repeated points in time, allowing for the correlation among the repeated measures. Findings Between January 2015 and December 2021, 508,743 viral load tests were performed on samples collected from 109,682 pre -teenage children. The prevalence of VLNS decreased from 22.9% (95% CI 22.4-23.3) to 12.5% (95% CI 12.1-12.9), p < 0.0001, and mean age increased from 3.1 (4.2) to 8.0 (3.2) years in 2015 and 2021 respectively. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for serially correlated data denotes a statistically significant decreasing trend (tau = -0.300, p < 0.0001) over the study period. In the multivariable GEE analysis adjusted for covariates, the odds of VLNS decreased by 11% per year during the study period, (GEE-aOR 0.89, 95% CI 0.88-0.90; p < 0.0001). Factors positively associated with VLNS were EFV/NVP-based first -line cART regimen (GEE-aOR 1.74, 95% CI 1.65-1.84, p < 0.0001), PI -based cART regimen (GEE-aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.72-1.92, p < 0.0001), and children aged 1-3 years (toddlers) (GEE-aOR: 1.84, 95% CI 1.79-1.90, p < 0.0001). On the contrary, DTG-based cART regimen, were negatively associated with VLNS (GEE-aOR 0.70, 95% CI 0.65-0.75, p < 0.0001). Interpretation There is a strong evidence of decreasing viremia between 2015 and 2021. To sustain the decreasing trend, accelerating the switch from the suboptimal EVP/NVP first -line regimen to optimised DTG regimen is warranted. (c) 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.